Canada pivot to Europe opens air cargo opportunities, exposing capacity gaps

AI-generated By Alex Lennane 6 October 2026 Canada’s efforts to reduce its reliance on the US are opening new opportunities for transatlantic air cargo, but forwarders warn that limited capacity and seasonal reductions in passenger flights could complicate the shift. Edmonton International Airport said its EU-bound cargo increased in 2025 while exports to the US fell, and expects record European flows this year. Alex Lowe, director, ecommerce, cargo, and aviation real estate, explained: “So far the data trend suggests 2026 will be a record year for air cargo from YEG to the EU.” The airport also expects record EU imports this year, with turbine parts, medical diagnostic equipment, and specialised machinery among its leading inbound commodities. Mr Lowe said trade diversification could encourage greater use of airfreight as Canadian businesses developed relationships with more distant markets. “From an air cargo perspective, we welcome this trend as it encourages trade with markets that may lean towards increased air cargo, given the geographic distances.” However, turning that opportunity into sustained business will require sufficient capacity. “Both our passenger and cargo data does show that the YEG market is underserved to/from the EU, so we are working with existing airline partners and potential new entrants to develop increased transatlantic air services, and/or increased capacity,” he said. “The ability to offer consistent two-way cargo volumes is a strong contributor to our business case.” Steffen Manz, CEO of Speed Global Logistics, said the challenge extended beyond Edmonton. “Capacity remains a significant bottleneck, particularly for Western Canada, meaning a substantial portion of western cargo must still route through eastern gateways or US hubs.” He said West Canadian shippers depended on seasonal passenger belly capacity and domestic feeder networks connecting with eastern gateways. But diversification is already generating new airfreight business, according to Mr Manz, who cited an Ontario-based automotive and electronics manufacturer that had previously sent component sub-assemblies by truck to a customer in the US Midwest. Following the introduction of tariffs, he said, the Canadian supplier became uncompetitive on that lane and activated a backup supply agreement with a German automotive systems integrator. “Because the new supply chain had to be stood up immediately, to prevent factory downtime, the initial months of volume shifted entirely from domestic trucking to expedited transatlantic airfreight to Frankfurt and Liège, generating entirely new lane demand for the air cargo network.” Official figures support the broader change in trading patterns, although they also underline the importance of distinguishing trade value from freight volumes. Statistics Canada reports that merchandise exports to non-US countries rose 17.2% in value in 2025, while exports to the US fell 5.8%. Total merchandise trade with non-US countries increased 14.3%. Gold was an important contributor: exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum-group metals and their alloys – predominantly gold – rose 41.7% in value amid rising prices. Excluding that category, total Canadian merchandise exports fell 3%. Transport Canada’s 2025 annual report also identified weaker cross-border trucking and rail activity alongside increased overseas shipments and air cargo. It noted 8% more air cargo with Europe, mainly gold and aircraft. The Canadian International Freight Forwarders Association (CIFFA) said businesses were exploring alternatives to US suppliers, reflecting changing consumer preferences as well as tariffs. It said some additional freight was moving between Canada and Europe, but warned that the transition into winter airline schedules would reduce available widebody services. However, Canada’s Cargojet has added capacity, launching a Wednesday 767 freighter service on 23 September, between Hamilton, Halifax, and Liège, returning to Hamilton. The service complements its weekend operation and connects with its Canadian overnight network. CIFFA suggested the additional flight could absorb some of the capacity lost as passenger airlines reduce their European services. CIFFA also cautioned that Edmonton’s growth could partly reflect the additional European airline services over the summer, rather than solely a change in shippers’ trading relationships. The economics of diversification remain challenging. CIFFA highlighted the difficulty of moving bulky or heavy goods by air, while higher fuel costs could make alternative routings prohibitively expensive. Airfreight was better suited to higher-value finished goods, it added. Mr Manz, nevertheless, believes the change will endure. He said: “Evidence points to this being a sustained, structural shift rather than a temporary trend.” Export Development Canada’s 2026 Trade Confidence Index found 31% of Canadian exporters planned to enter Europe in the next two years. EDC i