Is the Freight Market Finally Turning?

Webb Estes reveals record tonnage, thriving next-day business, and low driver turnover. He calls it a “Goldilocks market” for contracted carriers. Are you seeing similar success in your operations, or different trends? Let us know below. Estes Express Lines recorded a 15% year-over-year tonnage increase last week, marking back-to-back record weeks for the LTL carrier, according to Webb Estes, who appeared on FreightWaves Today. The surge adds to a broader trend of supply-side freight growth that Estes said has translated into real hiring gains and improved load factors across the network. The tonnage spike carried a modest asterisk: Wednesday fell at the end of the month rather than Tuesday as it did a year ago, creating favorable comparisons as shippers rushed to hit quarterly numbers. Even accounting for that calendar shift, Estes described the week as genuinely strong and consistent with predictions he made during a prior appearance on the program. Breaking down where the volume is coming from, Estes pointed to manufacturing — particularly truck and automotive — alongside groceries and retail. He cited a Wall Street Journal report noting that consumers are continuing to spend despite inflation. The carrier’s next-day, regional business stood out as the fastest-growing segment, with Q3 next-day shipments up 13% year over year compared with 2.5% growth for the rest of its network. Estes attributed the regional outperformance partly to truckload capacity shrinkage pushing shorter-haul freight toward LTL. “I really believe it comes down to our people. Our driver turnover for people that are within at least one year is at 7.5% right now … our dock worker turnover after one year is the lowest I’ve ever seen it at 11.5%,” said Webb Estes. Those retention figures underpin a separate milestone: Mastio named Estes the best-value national LTL carrier for the fifth consecutive year, results the company learned the morning of the interview. Estes said low turnover means drivers and dock workers build lasting customer relationships — a structural advantage he believes is difficult for competitors to replicate. The carrier plans to announce pay raises and new benefits for its workforce within the next month. On the broader market cycle, Estes was measured. He characterized demand as still in “the first inning,” with supply normalization — not a demand boom — driving most of the improvement to date. He flagged rising credit card debt and elevated diesel prices as risks to consumer staying power, while expressing optimism that a reshoring of U.S. manufacturing could create a freight multiplier effect down the road. His host noted that domestic manufacturing typically generates at least three times the freight of an equivalent import flow due to inbound parts and components. Estes also announced a coming technology upgrade: shippers will soon be able to track freight moving on a live map, building on existing tools that already surface driver name, equipment details, stops-away count, and lane-level on-time performance at the quoting stage. “The visibility is not just for the answer in the moment, but also for them to know, hey, Estes has it,” he said. Estes Express posted 15% year-over-year tonnage growth last week, its second consecutive record, driven by manufacturing, grocery, and retail freight. Next-day regional shipments rose 13% year over year in Q3, far outpacing the carrier’s overall 2.5% volume growth as shorter hauls gain share from tightening truckload capacity. Driver turnover stands at 7.5% and dock worker turnover at 11.5% for employees with at least one year of tenure — both records for the carrier — supporting a fifth straight Mastio best-value award. This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above. Upcoming FreightWaves Events Compliance Brokerage Compliance Symposium The day before F3. Every compliance issue you face - fraud exposure, carrier liability, FMCSA rules, cargo theft, insurance gaps - navigated by attorneys and operators defining best practices in a changing industry. October 26, 2026 The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register Now Awards F3 Awards Dinner The night before F3. FreightTech100 companies honored. FreightTech 25 and Shipper of Choice winners revealed live. Cocktail reception into dinner and live music - 300 industry leaders in one purpose-built room. October 26, 2026 The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register Now FreightTech F3: Future of Freight Festival Industry-defining keynotes, rapid-fire technology demos, and industry leaders networking in experiences across Chattanooga - plus the inaugural F3 Awards Dinner featuring the FreightTech and Shipper of Choice reveals. October 27, 2026 – October 28, 2026 The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga, TN Register Now Compliance Brokerage Compliance Symposium Oct 26 • The Signal at Chattanooga Choo Choo • Chattanooga